Solar and battery lead generation after the rebate changes

Since 1 May 2026 the federal battery discount pays 6.8 small-scale technology certificates (STCs) per usable kWh up to 14 kWh, then tapers to 60% and 15%. On 1 January 2027 the factor drops to 5.7, cutting every battery’s certificates by 16.2%. Solar and battery lead generation now has to sell to the install date, not the signing date.

Facts on this page were read on the DCCEEW Cheaper Home Batteries page and the CER solar batteries page on 11 October 2026. Rebate settings change; check both before you print a number in an ad.

What changed in the battery rebate on 1 May 2026?

Two things changed on 1 May 2026, after the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Regulations 2001 were amended on 5 February 2026. First, the STC factor (the number of certificates a battery earns per kWh of usable capacity) now declines every six months instead of yearly, and at a steeper rate. Second, the factor tapers by battery size: 100% for the first 14 kWh, 60% for each kWh from 14 to 28, and 15% for each kWh from 28 to 50. Usable capacity above 50 kWh earns nothing, and batteries must be 5–100 kWh nominal.

The factors are DCCEEW’s published schedule; the percentage changes are our arithmetic. The 2028 to 2030 steps in between are 4.1, 3.6, 3.1 and 2.6. A dated, verifiable step-down is the only kind of urgency a solar business should put in front of a homeowner.

What is the battery rebate worth on the sizes you sell?

A 13.5 kWh battery installed before 31 December 2026 earns 91.8 STCs, worth about $3,672 at the STC clearing house’s fixed $40 price (excluding GST). Installed in January 2027, the same battery earns 76.95 STCs, about $3,078. Treat every dollar figure on this page as an estimate: CER says open-market STC prices fluctuate and have no maximum, and system owners usually assign their STCs to an agent for an upfront discount, so the discount a customer sees depends on the price that agent gets and what the retailer passes on, not on the $40 clearing-house price (CER, renewable energy certificates, read 11 October 2026).

How to recompute a row: for 20 kWh now, 14 × 6.8 = 95.2, plus 6 × 6.8 × 0.6 = 24.48, gives 119.68 STCs; × $40 = $4,787. We have not rounded to whole certificates; the REC Registry STC calculator linked from CER gives the exact count for a real install. Two lead-generation facts fall out of the table. A 40 kWh battery lost about half its discount on 1 May and a 30 kWh battery 39%, so “go big” offers built in early 2026 no longer add up. And CER’s data shows the average battery claimed in 2026 created 233.9 STCs (71,159,117 STCs across 304,177 batteries, to 31 August 2026, mixing pre- and post-May installs); a 13.5 kWh battery now earns 91.8, under 40% of that. The neighbour’s rebate your prospect heard about is probably not the one they will get.

The Install-Date Rule: why your deadline is the install date, not the signing date

The Install-Date Rule says: a battery lead is worth the discount on the day you can realistically install it, so quote it at that day’s STC factor and stop selling the current factor once your install calendar is full. CER’s April 2026 statement is explicit that “Rebates are based on the installation date, not the purchase date,” that installers “can claim no more than 2 installations per day,” and that a retailer who agrees to an install before a step-down but cannot deliver “may be liable to pay the difference” (CER, April 2026).

The dates are 31 December 2026 minus your lag; subtract your shutdown too. Capacity sets the ceiling. From 12 October to 31 December 2026 there are 59 weekdays, so at CER’s two-per-day cap one accredited installer working weekdays can complete at most 118 SRES installs, before travel, weather and public holidays. If your crew can do 40 batteries before Christmas, generating 200 “beat the deadline” enquiries mostly produces people you will disappoint.

How do I generate solar and battery leads after the rebate changes?

1. Count your install slots first. Installers × realistic installs per week × weeks to the next step-down. That number, divided by your lead-to-install rate, is the most leads worth generating at the current factor.
2. Re-quote every open battery quote at the factor it will actually get. Quotes written before 1 May at 8.4 are now wrong by 19% or more, and CER told retailers in March 2026 to “check your quotes, ensure that they are not out of date” (CER, March 2026). Our guide to reactivating dead quotes in a trade business covers the sequence and the Spam Act and Do Not Call Register rules.
3. Lead with the 14 kWh band. The full factor stops at 14 kWh, so offers sized at or under it keep the strongest percentage discount.
4. Mine your past solar customers. Only one battery per premises can claim STCs, and a battery must connect to new or existing solar. A solar customer whose premises has not yet claimed a battery may be eligible, subject to the other CER requirements; one who already claimed is not.
5. Qualify on four questions before booking a site visit: existing solar and its inverter (CER requires the battery’s inverter to be VPP-capable); usable kWh the household needs; whether the premises has already claimed a battery; and the earliest install date they would accept.
6. Answer inside minutes. See speed to lead for trade businesses.

Who should solar businesses target for battery leads now?

The largest pool of battery buyers in Australia is households that already have solar. CER counts 4,532,178 small-scale solar PV systems installed since 2001 and 510,949 batteries claimed since the program opened on 1 July 2025. In 2026 to 31 August, 304,177 batteries were claimed against 217,634 new solar PV systems, so batteries now outnumber new panel installs. CER warns that recent figures keep rising for 12 months as certificates are created, so treat them as a floor.

Source: CER small-scale installation postcode data. Your own installed base is the cheapest slice of that pool, because you already hold the address, the inverter model and the system size.

What should a battery ad or SMS not say?

A battery ad should not say the rebate is ending. DCCEEW says the discount will “decrease over time until 2030,” so “rebate ends soon” is false, while “the discount steps down on 1 January 2027” is true and checkable. CER says retailers must comply with Australian Consumer Law when advertising batteries and that deceptive or misleading behaviour will be reported to fair trading bodies. Never quote 6.8 to anyone you cannot install before 31 December.

What does running battery lead generation yourself cost?

The DIY version is entirely workable: an install-slot count, a re-quote of your open list, a 14 kWh offer, and a phone that is answered inside minutes. Its cost is mostly hours. As a labelled assumption, re-quoting and calling 300 open quotes at 10 minutes each is 50 hours, before ad management and the after-hours follow-up a quote-shopped market needs.

The thresholds are our judgement, not measured benchmarks; substitute your own capacity. If you hand it over, the options are compared in buying solar leads versus generating your own and our solar lead generation guide, which also explains AI appointment setting priced on results.

FAQ: solar and battery lead generation after the rebate changes

Is the Cheaper Home Batteries Program ending?

No. DCCEEW says the discount will decrease over time until 2030 and is reviewed at least annually. The STC factor is 6.8 for installs from May to December 2026, then 5.7 from January to June 2027, falling to 2.1 in the second half of 2030, per the DCCEEW program page read on 11 October 2026.

How much is the battery rebate on a 13.5 kWh battery?

Installed between May and December 2026, a 13.5 kWh usable battery earns 91.8 STCs, about $3,672 at the $40 clearing house price excluding GST. Installed in January 2027 it earns 76.95 STCs, about $3,078. Use the REC Registry calculator for an exact figure on a real install.

Does the battery rebate depend on when the customer signs?

No. CER states that rebates are based on the installation date, not the purchase date. A customer who signs in December but is installed in January gets the January factor, and CER has warned that retailers who promise an earlier install they cannot deliver may be liable for the difference.

Can a household that already claimed a battery rebate claim again?

No. CER allows one battery system per premises to claim STCs; additional batteries are not eligible after the first claim. Extra modules can be added to a battery that has never claimed, within the 100 kWh nominal limit. Qualify this before booking a site visit.

Should solar installers still sell batteries above 28 kWh?

Yes, where the household load justifies them, but not on the rebate. Each kWh from 28 to 50 earns only 15% of the STC factor, so a 40 kWh battery earns about $6,582 now against $13,440 under the pre-May settings. Sell large systems on usage and backup, not on the discount.