What Is a Good Close Rate for HVAC Replacement Estimates?

A good close rate for HVAC replacement estimates is about 45% for residential work, the average in the ACCA and Farmington Consulting “Contractor of the Future” survey of 1,000+ contractors, which found contractors close 43% of install jobs overall and 38% on commercial. Contractors offering four or more options averaged 52%, so treat 52% as the strong mark and anything under 38% as a warning.

At a glance: rules of thumb for HVAC replacement close rates

• 45% residential, 38% commercial: the averages in the ACCA and Farmington “Contractor of the Future” survey, as reported by ACHR News (February 2026).
• Four or more options: the same survey found a 52% close rate versus 42% for contractors presenting one, two or three options. Only 10% of contractors present four or more.
• Financing on the table: average close rate 49% when contractors offer financing versus 38% when they do not (same survey).
• Tech-sourced replacements close higher: Simpro, a field-service software vendor, puts replacement conversations started by a technician on a 10+ year old system at 80% to 85%, versus 40% to 50% for cold leads.
• Each point is about $6,600 a month at 60 estimates and an $11,000 ticket (60 x $11,000 x 1%), from the worked example below.

The HVAC Estimate Close-Rate Ladder

The HVAC Estimate Close-Rate Ladder sets a separate pass mark for each estimate type, from about 45% on residential marketing leads to 80% or more on technician turnovers. Cold leads, turnovers and financing-led proposals start from different levels of trust. Use the published figure where one exists; where none does, the band is a labeled assumption you should replace with your own trailing 90 days.

Two vendor figures circulate that this ladder does not use. Simpro’s blog repeats the same 43% average and 45%/38% split as the ACCA survey, so it adds no independent second data point. A widely repeated “Nextiva 2024 HVAC survey” figure (52% for top contractors, 35% average) could not be traced to any Nextiva publication when we checked on 3 November 2026, so it is left out.

FAQ: HVAC replacement estimate close rates

HVAC owners most often ask these five questions about replacement estimate close rates, answered with the published survey figures and the worked example above.

What is a good close rate for HVAC replacement estimates?

About 45% for residential replacement estimates is average, based on the ACCA and Farmington Consulting survey of more than 1,000 contractors reported by ACHR News. Contractors presenting four or more options averaged 52%, a fair target for a strong team.

Is a 30% HVAC close rate bad?

A 30% close rate is below the 38% that the same survey reports for contractors who do not offer financing, so it is worth investigating. Check the denominator first: if cancelled appointments or phone quotes are counted, the true in-home rate may be higher.

Should service-to-replacement estimates be counted separately?

Yes. Technician-sourced replacement estimates close much higher than cold marketing leads (Simpro cites 80% to 85% versus 40% to 50%), so mixing them hides how marketing leads are really converting.

Does offering financing raise HVAC close rates?

In the ACCA and Farmington survey, average close rates were 49% for contractors offering financing and 38% for those not offering it. Leading with a monthly payment also doubled the share of sales financed, 42% versus 21%.

How much revenue is in unsold HVAC estimates?

At 60 estimates a month, an $11,000 ticket and a 43% close rate, about $376,200 a month in quoted work goes unsold. Recovering even 5% of it is about $18,810 a month.

How much revenue sits in unsold HVAC replacement estimates?

Unsold HVAC replacement estimates often hold more than half the quoted value: at 60 estimates a month and an $11,000 ticket, a 43% close rate leaves $376,200 unsold. The inputs below are illustrative assumptions (60 estimates, $11,000 ticket); replace them with your own numbers and the arithmetic still holds.

Total quoted value is 60 x $11,000 = $660,000 a month. Going from 35% to 43% adds $52,800 a month; going from 43% to 52% adds another $59,400. Over a year, the full 35% to 52% move is $1,346,400 in extra sold revenue. That is revenue, not profit: apply your own gross margin before deciding what the improvement is worth spending on.

The unsold column is the second lever. If structured follow-up wins back a share of estimates that did not close on the visit, the recovered revenue at the 43% row looks like this, using assumption bands only:

• 5% of unsold recovered (assumption): 34.2 x 5% = 1.71 jobs, about $18,810 a month.
• 10% recovered (assumption): 3.42 jobs, about $37,620 a month.
• 15% recovered (assumption): 5.13 jobs, about $56,430 a month.

No neutral public benchmark for HVAC unsold-estimate recovery was found, which is why these are bands and not a claim. Track your own: estimates marked “not sold” at day 0, and how many of them sign by day 30, 60 and 90.

Why the denominator changes an HVAC close rate

An HVAC close rate is sold replacement jobs divided by replacement estimates actually presented in the home, and the wrong denominator makes it unreadable. Three common distortions:

• Counting leads, not presented estimates. Booked appointments that cancel, or calls that never become a visit, belong in your booking rate, not your close rate. The cost per HVAC lead and booked appointment page covers that earlier step.
• Mixing estimate types. A comfort advisor running mostly technician turnovers will post a number that would be excellent for cold ad leads and mediocre for turnovers. Split the report by source, as the ladder does.
• Counting only same-visit sales. Jobs that sign in week three are still closes. ServiceTitan’s May 2026 analysis of its customers across several trades (not HVAC alone) says top performers “close 77% of their estimates during the same visit” versus 62% for the rest, which tells you speed matters, but your close rate should still credit later signatures.

Formula: replacement close rate = replacement jobs sold in the period / replacement estimates presented in the period, reported separately for marketing leads, technician turnovers and commercial. The same denominator problem appears in other trades; the roofing close-rate benchmarks page works through it for inspections and quotes.

What raises an HVAC replacement close rate the most?

Offering financing (38% to 49%, 11 points) and presenting four or more options (42% to 52%, 10 points) are the two largest published lifts in the ACCA and Farmington survey. The levers below are ranked by the size of the published gap.

1. Offering financing: 49% versus 38% average close rate (survey). ACHR adds that only 37% of contractors offer financing on every job, and that leading with a monthly payment saw 42% of new or replacement sales financed versus 21% when leading with the total price.
2. Four or more proposal options: 52% versus 42% (survey). Options can mean efficiency levels, thermostat packages, warranties, add-ons and financing terms.
3. Sourcing more estimates from technicians: Simpro’s 80% to 85% versus 40% to 50% gap is a vendor claim, but the logic holds: a homeowner whose own technician flagged the system already trusts the diagnosis.
4. Closing the gap between quote and decision: ServiceTitan’s same-visit figures (77% versus 62%, multi-trade) point the same way: a long wait gives the homeowner time to get a second quote.

For context on how old some “industry standard” numbers are, a 2008 Contracting Business article based on a consultant’s 2007 conference talk said the best residential replacement companies kept a closing rate above 60%. Treat it as a historical ceiling, not a current benchmark.

What does following up unsold HVAC estimates yourself cost?

Following up unsold HVAC estimates in-house costs mainly staff time, about 11 hours a month for 34 unsold estimates on the assumptions below. Assuming five calls or texts each over 30 days gives about 170 touches a month. At an assumed 4 minutes per touch including logging the outcome in your CRM, that is roughly 11 hours a month of a CSR’s or comfort advisor’s time, before callbacks and rebooked visits.

Doing it yourself works well when you have a CSR with spare capacity, a CRM that flags “estimate given, not sold” and a script that restates the options and the monthly payment. It breaks when the comfort advisors own their own follow-up and peak season arrives: unsold estimates then go quiet exactly when installs are busiest. The emergency vs estimate follow-up cadence page sets out the timing for each lead type, and the database reactivation page covers working quoted-but-never-closed estimates that are months old.

Calls and texts to homeowners in the US are covered by the Telephone Consumer Protection Act, so keep a record of how each homeowner asked to be contacted. LeadsNow runs this follow-up as a done-for-you service for US home services companies, calling, texting and messaging leads and unsold estimates within permitted calling hours, and its record across clients is 50,769+ AI-booked appointments since 2017.

Sources

The sources for this HVAC close-rate page are listed below, each checked at the original page on 3 November 2026.

1. ACHR News, “Survey Reveals Strategies to Boost HVAC Close Rates by Double Digits”, 10 February 2026 (ACCA and Farmington Consulting Group “Contractor of the Future” survey).
2. ACCA, “Inside the Contractor of the Future Study: Key findings from 1,000+ contractors”, December 2025.
3. Simpro, “How to Get More HVAC Sales: 11 Proven Strategies”, 9 April 2026 (vendor source).
4. ServiceTitan, “The Profile of a Top Performer”, May 2026 (vendor source, multi-trade platform data).
5. Contracting Business, “Benchmark Against the Best”, March 2008.